HOTFIXv0.4.2

Weather reference probabilities now respect the full outcome range

We fixed a reference-pricing issue that could underweight a tail outcome even when the latest official temperature was already inside that outcome.

August 14, 2026

What was wrong

Weather outcomes such as ≥ 30.0°C represent a full interval, not a single 30.0°C point. The previous reference model used the edge of a tail range as its representative value, which could make an observation such as 30.9°C look artificially far away from the very outcome that contained it.

Observed: 30.9°C Old reference: ≥30.0°C 70% · 29.5–29.9°C 28% New model: ≥30.0°C about 95% · 29.5–29.9°C about 4%

What changed

Reference YES prices now use probability mass across each persisted interval. Upper and lower tail outcomes are treated as open-ended ranges instead of single edge points. The Current-range highlight continues to use the latest official observation as before.

Contract safety

This hotfix changes reference probabilities only. It does not modify outcome labels, temperature boundaries, winning-outcome logic, settlement evidence, Wallet, Ledger, matching or user positions.

← Back to Product Updates