Crypto markets are moving to threshold contracts.

Predicta Crypto V5 introduces cumulative “or above” strikes for newly generated 12-hour and Daily crypto events, making each price level a clear YES/NO proposition while keeping settlement tied to persisted Coinbase evidence.

₿ Threshold strikesNew 12-hour and Daily events use propositions such as “$63,000 or above.”

↕ Independent YES / NO marketsEach strike is backed by its own escrow_v1 binary Market.

📊 Chance ≠ execution priceForecast chance and executable YES / NO prices are now shown as separate concepts.

🧾 Evidence-driven settlementThe decisive result still comes from the designated persisted Coinbase Observation.

From price ranges to clear thresholds

Longer-duration Crypto events previously used mutually exclusive price ranges. New V5 events instead ask a series of simple Boolean questions.

$62,800 or above $62,900 or above $63,000 or above $63,100 or above

If the frozen settlement price is $62,950, the lower strikes resolve YES while higher strikes resolve NO.

≥ $62,800 → YES ≥ $62,900 → YES ≥ $63,000 → NO ≥ $63,100 → NO

Unlike a range event, several threshold Markets inside the same Event can therefore resolve YES at the same settlement value.

15-minute Crypto remains one true binary contract

The 15-minute product is not turned into a 10-strike ladder. It remains a single binary proposition with one YES / NO Market. V5 also strengthens the settlement path so a single binary contract can cleanly settle to NO without requiring a separate singular winning outcome.

A new Strike / Chance / YES / NO ladder

Threshold Event pages now use a dedicated strike ladder inspired by the information hierarchy of modern event exchanges.

Strike Chance YES NO $62,800 or above 98% 99¢ 2¢ $62,900 or above 63% 88¢ 13¢ $63,000 or above 17% 34¢ 67¢ $63,100 or above 6% 5¢ 96¢

Chance describes the market-implied forecast. YES and NO show executable contract prices. They are intentionally separated, because a forecast and the price currently available to trade are not always identical when spreads or thin liquidity are present.

Chance prefers the most recent YES trade, then a book midpoint, then the creation-time reference prior. If an executable YES or NO quote does not exist, the ladder displays — instead of a misleading 0%.

Small probabilities: a genuinely tiny chance is displayed as <1%. Missing market data is displayed as —. These are deliberately different states.

Current price is reference context, not the outcome

The current Coinbase spot price is shown as a quiet reference underneath the nearest strike. It helps traders understand where the market sits right now, but it does not become settlement evidence simply because it is visible on screen.

Live reference price → trading context only
Scheduled persisted Observation → settlement evidence

Settlement remains deterministic and evidence-driven

Every threshold Market uses the same frozen Coinbase Observation for the Event. Predicta compares that settlement value independently against every strike: settlement price greater than or equal to the strike resolves YES; otherwise it resolves NO.

If eligible Observation evidence is not yet available inside the contract's declared time window, resolution waits and retries rather than substituting a later live quote.

Existing contracts are not rewritten

Crypto V5 is a safe rollover. Existing V1–V4 events keep the contract semantics they were published with. Failed or recovering V4 events also keep their original range or binary metadata instead of being silently regenerated as V5 thresholds.

This means an already-public range such as $62,900–<$63,000 remains a range contract until it settles. Threshold markets appear only on newly generated V5 settlement keys.

Weather is unchanged: Weather markets remain mutually exclusive range products. This update applies to new longer-duration Crypto events, not Weather contracts.

Paper Trading follows the same backing Market result

Paper Trading now settles from each backing Market's final YES / NO outcome. This supports threshold Events with multiple YES strikes and also makes single-binary NO settlement unambiguous.

A strike is a question. The market price is an answer in motion.

Watch the next Crypto cycle

Existing public contracts keep their original rules. New V5 threshold markets will appear as the generator creates new 12-hour and Daily settlement cycles.

Explore Markets