Fewer outcomes. Clearer decisions. More focused markets.

Predicta is simplifying newly generated Weather and Crypto markets so each question is easier to understand and trading activity is concentrated across fewer outcomes.

Why we are reducing outcome counts

More outcomes do not automatically create a better prediction market. Very fine price or temperature grids can split attention and liquidity across many nearly identical choices. They also make the core question harder to answer at a glance.

The new structure focuses on a smaller number of outcomes that better match how people actually form predictions: a temperature range, a short-term direction, or a broader future price range.

Weather markets: 0.5°C ranges

New hourly Weather events now use eight central 0.5°C ranges plus lower and upper tail outcomes. This produces ten outcomes in total. The change replaces the previous 0.1°C structure for newly generated markets.

Instead of choosing between many values separated by only a tenth of a degree, traders can make a clearer judgment about the temperature range the specified official CWA station will report at settlement.

Crypto 15-Min: direction instead of tiny price buckets

New BTC and ETH 15-minute markets are directional. The generation price becomes the anchor: DOWN resolves when the settlement price is below the anchor, while UP resolves when the settlement price is equal to or above it.

This reduces a 22-outcome short-term price ladder to two outcomes and makes the question straightforward: will the asset finish the interval up or down from its anchor?

Crypto 12-Hour and Daily: fewer, wider ranges

Longer-duration Crypto markets continue to use price ranges because the likely landing zone can be more informative over longer horizons. New 12-Hour and Daily markets use eight central price ranges plus two tails, for ten outcomes total.

This keeps the range-market experience while substantially reducing fragmentation compared with the previous 42- and 52-outcome structures.

Less generator load, too

The smaller market structures also reduce the number of backing Market and Outcome records created and settled for each event. Predicta's Crypto generator now reuses a coin's spot quote within the same scheduler tick when possible, reducing repeated external price requests during generation and settlement work.

Existing markets are not rewritten

These changes apply to newly generated events. Predicta does not change the outcome definitions of a market after it has opened. Legacy Weather and Crypto markets therefore continue to trade and settle using the exact boundaries they were created with.

During the rollout, old and new structures may briefly appear at the same time as existing events reach settlement and the next generation takes over.