Weather markets are getting simpler and easier to trade.

Predicta's new hourly temperature markets now use 0.5°C ranges, with clearer official CWA observation information and fewer fragmented outcomes.

Why move from 0.1°C to 0.5°C?

Very narrow 0.1°C ranges were precise, but they also split a relatively small temperature range into many nearly identical choices. For a prediction market, more precision is not always more useful. Too many tiny outcomes can fragment attention and liquidity.

New hourly temperature events therefore use 0.5°C buckets. Instead of choosing between 33.1–33.2°C, 33.2–33.3°C and 33.3–33.4°C, traders can evaluate clearer ranges such as 33.0–33.4°C, 33.5–33.9°C and 34.0–34.4°C.

Fewer outcomes, clearer decisions

Each new hourly weather event uses eight central temperature ranges plus lower and upper tail outcomes. This keeps the market focused around plausible temperatures without requiring dozens of tiny contracts.

The question becomes simpler: which temperature range will the specified official weather station report at the target time?

Official observation time is not the same as sync time

Predicta now separates two timestamps in the weather interface. The official CWA observation time tells you when the weather station recorded the temperature. Predicta last checked tells you when the platform most recently checked the CWA source.

If Predicta checks at 14:35 and the latest CWA observation is still from 14:00, the interface can say that Predicta is synced and waiting for the next official CWA update. A recent platform check no longer makes an older official observation look artificially “fresh.”

Why your phone weather may differ

Phone weather applications can use different stations, forecast models, interpolated neighborhood temperatures or different data providers. Predicta weather contracts are tied to the specific CWA station named by the market.

Settlement therefore uses the official observation from that specified station. This gives every participant the same public and verifiable settlement source, even when a phone app displays a different local temperature.

Existing weather contracts do not change

Contracts already opened under the previous 0.1°C structure keep their original outcome boundaries until settlement. Predicta does not rewrite an active contract after participants can trade it. The 0.5°C structure applies to newly generated weather events.